Every mile, 6:29.
That's 4:02 per km, held for 26.2 mi. Even splits are the fastest way to run it.
Where you are right now.
A marathon prediction from your best effort in the last 60 days, using the Riegel formula. A recent half marathon race gives the most reliable estimate.
A big jump for one cycle. Use the next few months to raise volume, and check in with a tune-up half in late winter.
Predicted marathon over time
Month-end estimate from your best effort in the previous 60 days. Up = faster.
23 weeks. Four phases.
Counted back from race day. A 2:50 marathon usually takes peak weeks of about 55–70 mi. This is a guideline, not a coach.
Easy aerobic miles, strides, one steady run. Build volume ~10% a week.
Add threshold work and marathon-pace segments in long runs.
Highest volume. Long runs to 20–22 mi with 10–14 mi at goal pace.
Cut volume 25–60%, keep some goal-pace work. Sleep, eat, trust it.
Weekly distance: plan vs. actual
The last 8 weeks you ran, then the guideline range for every week to race day.
Run the right speed.
Derived from your goal marathon pace of 6:29/mi.
- Easy & recoveryMost of your week. Conversational.8:09–7:29/mi
- Long runSunday long runs, finishing faster.7:44–7:09/mi
- Marathon paceGoal pace: blocks inside long runs.6:29/mi
- ThresholdTempo runs and cruise intervals.6:14–6:04/mi
- Intervals (≈5K pace)800 m–1600 m repeats.5:49–5:39/mi
The road to Chicago.
Your goal is exactly the standard, with no buffer. Even a few seconds over won't count, so aim to finish a minute or two under.
The qualifying window for Chicago 2027 ran from Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 29, 2026, and applications have closed. London Marathon on Apr 25, 2027 would count toward Chicago 2028. Those standards haven't been published yet, and they have been tightened before, so a buffer helps.
The time must come from a certified marathon course. London qualifies.
All Chicago 2027 time standards
| Age on race day | Men | Women / non-binary |
|---|---|---|
| 16-34 | 2:50:00 | 3:20:00 |
| 35-39 | 2:55:00 | 3:25:00 |
| 40-44 | 3:00:00 | 3:30:00 |
| 45-49 | 3:10:00 | 3:40:00 |
| 50-54 | 3:15:00 | 3:50:00 |
| 55-59 | 3:25:00 | 3:55:00 |
| 60-64 | 3:40:00 | 4:15:00 |
| 65-69 | 3:55:00 | 4:30:00 |
| 70-74 | 4:15:00 | 4:45:00 |
| 75-79 | 4:30:00 | 5:00:00 |
| 80+ | 4:50:00 | 5:20:00 |
Source: chicagomarathon.com/apply (2027 race, age on Oct 10, 2027).
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